Ferrera Outlook Forecast Results Documented in his Yearly Outlooks from 2008 to Current

Introduction

The results of Dan Ferrera’s forecasts have been tracked and compiled for over 9 years on this page, showing examples of his time projection techniques and results combined with his price forecasting methods. His readers have seen him call the bubble tops in 2001 and 2007 and forecast to the week the final bottom in 2009 allowing his clients to buy the exact low for the current longest bull market in history. Ferrera identifies major turning points in the market each year helping investors, managers and traders to move in and out of intermediate to long term trades or to hedge positions based upon advanced cyclic analysis and mathematical models founded upon technical analysis and Gann theory.

Intent Of Ferrera's Outlooks

Readers should always understand that the main objeotive of these Outlook Reports is to avoid bear markets and significant corrections, yet participate in bull markets advances that are expected to last at least a minimum of 6-months for the most aggressive traders. It should also be viewed as an educational resource as many forecasting discoveries are revealed in each report that are not available from any other source.

Best wishes for successful trading…

Dan Ferrera

 2016 Outlook

   

Ferrera Outlook for 2016 by Daniel T. Ferrera ( $50.00 )

Examples of Ferrera’s 2016 Major Turning Point Forecasts & Angle Projections as explained in his course: The Path of Least Resistance

Forecast Results 2015 thru 2016 - Gann’s 8/8/1908 Time Factor

2015 Outlook

   

Ferrera Outlook for 2015 by Daniel T. Ferrera ( $50.00 )

Forecast Results For 2015 - September 2016. Odd & Even Square Projection from May 20th 2015 Top

Outlook Summary

• Readers are warned that stock prices are high and a correction is likely to occur in August as the maximum extension of this Bull market. Page 30 said - 'August 2015 would be the ultimate time limit of the 3rd longest bull market in history'.
• The March Update calculated the maximum price high for the S&P500 would not exceed 2140. The highest price traded on May 20th was 2135!
• This same update told readers to expect a 6-year cycle low to occur between June and September of 2015.
• The market double bottomed in this time period August 25 and September 29, fulfilling the 6-year low and the initial decline of a projected bear market into 2016, which implies that it is the final price high of the 6-year bull market advance.

Forecast Results Q4 2014 thru 2015. The 2015 Outlook states that the market has changed and cycles are weighing heavy on what is typically a very bullish year in Gann’s Decennial rules.

Key points from the above chart

• In his August 2014 update, Ferrera said that from a structural perspective that the market changed on September 19th, 2014.
• He called for a seasonal rally to occur in October to December 30, 2014 as the next 'Square Out' date. The market does indeed square out on 12/30/2014.
• Ferrera states that the 2015 market should end below the middle red line of the 12/30/14 square out price, which it does!
• He states that the January Effect forecasts a downward year.
• He shows that the February top (red arrow) shows George Lindsey’s standard time count for sideways correction. Topping formation in process.
• In the June update he told subscribers to use the April 27th high as a price Pivot. Ferrera said to be Long Above that point, and Short Below it. The market never broke out above that point.
• The March Update showed how the daily price structure was setting up for another Flash Crash and similar decline as Sep thru Oct 2014. The initial correction began as forecasted and the price pivot level provided several excellent entry points.
• The June Update stated, 'Analysis suggests that mid-August through October of this year is the most likely 2-month period to usher in the initial phase of a meaningful correction that could ultimately last into 2016.'
• August Update showed that the market is now bearish on Gann’s primary 45-degree angle and predicted a bounce back that would stall the advance precisely on the same angle, which is exactly what happened.
• 6-year low (blue arrow at Sep bottom). Readers were told that a seasonal rally is expected to happen but will be short lived and fail by November instead of its typical rise through year end. Market topped November 3rd hitting the 45-degree angle.
• (red arrow Nov top) Market hits its head on the 45-degree angle as forecast to be the ideal price level. Rally died Nov 3rd.
• October update gave Dec 2nd as the price-time date.
• Market closed negative for the year as forecasted. Buy and hold investors have not made ANY real gains since the September 19th 2014 date that Ferrera said market structure began to change.

2014 Outlook - January, February & March Updates

   

Ferrera Outlook for 2014 by Daniel T. Ferrera ( $50.00 )

• Ferrera called the December 31st, 2013 top on The Dow Jones Industrial Average.
• He gave January 14th as another area for a top, and the S&P and NASDAQ hit their first top on January 16th.
• The next update showed how the decline broke the lowest low of December 2013, confirming the probability of a bear market for 2014.
• Readers were also told to watch for tops around March 6th for the S&P and NASDAQ as these markets were diverging like they did 14-years ago in 2000.
• The March update showed the importance of Friday March 21st to Monday March 24th, 2014, based upon past parabolic markets, warning readers of the potential that this secular bear market rally may be over.

2013 Outlook

   

Ferrera Outlook for 2013 by Daniel T. Ferrera ( $50.00 )

October 19th Update

Historical pattern analysis suggests that October might correct approximately 3% to 5% from the current high levels, followed by a seasonal rally into year-end or December 31st, shown below. If the market does experience the minor correction predicted, then purchasing Call Options with December 2013 expiration is likely the best approach to play this particular scenario as it provides a specific amount of risk and a leveraged amount of return.

July 12th Update

On the prior chart, the cyclic top was April 22nd 1998, with a triple top forming on May 21st, very similar to the cycle top for 2013 on May 21st. This market declined for a full month into late June and then bounced up aggressively into July 18th, 1998, From July 18th, 1998, the markets collapsed over 20% into August 31st before reversing on September 1st

May 15th Update

The next cycle turn is the anniversary of the NYSE date of incorporation May 17th. On the 20th to 22nd of May, another important cycle turning point is due, ideally May 21st. June is projected as weakness on the 160-year and 180-year cycles. This same period is also weak based upon Gann’s Financial Time Table. As said prior, a top feels near.

Outlook: Page 6

Examining the forecasting methods presented thus far, it seems likely that the markets will weaken or trend downwards September through late November 2012. In fact, 60 years of almanac analysis pegs the average September decline at -0.5% for the S&P 500 and -0.8% for the Dow Industrials. The worst September came in 1974 when the S&P 500 fell 11.9%, while the best monthly gain was posted just two years ago when the index rose 8.8%. In September, fund managers typically clean house selling a lot of their positions as the end of their third quarter approaches, which has caused some nasty sell-offs near month-end over the years. We may also see some supportive action from the Federal Reserve in the first part of September, but as we approach the Autumnal Equinox (Sept 22nd) the focus will clearly be politics and gauging which way the presidential election is leaning."

Outlook: Page 50

The best time to buy into this market would be under the following conditions:

1. There is a significant price decline from the Autumn Equinox (Sept 22nd 2012 area) down until at least the presidential elections on November 4th.
2. We see this downtrend reverse near the permanent yearly cycle dates of: Nov. 8th to 11th.
3. Readers should project geometric angles down from the September top as shown on page 45 to assist with trade entry. These angles should also be utilized in an upward projection from the lowest price point preceding your entry to provide an exit signal and/or protective stop loss orders. Based upon the 45-year cycle and the 2012 Mass Pressure Chart, we should see an explosive up move following Thanksgiving November 22nd 2012, which would provide confirming evidence that the 45-year cycle is still working itself out.
4. The Market continues up through December 31st, 2012.

Selected Indications

Market Predictions

 A top on September 21st, 2012

• A 2012 cycle low to occur on November 10th
• Followed by an explosive uptrend into spring 2013
• A sell signal for May 21st 2013 anticipating a 10% decline
• A high on July 18th followed by a Sept 1st low
• A 3-5% decline from the September highs followed by a seasonal rally into year's end

2012 Outlook

   

Ferrera Outlook for 2012 by Daniel T. Ferrera ( $50.00 )

February Update

Taking a closer look at what has occurred thus far, we find that the market did decline from September 2012 into November 2012 (presidential elections) as was discussed on page 6 of the report. The George Lindsey mirror image forecast was only off by 1-week or +6-days. The 2012 Mass Pressure also anticipated the powerful Christmas Rally that followed the November 16th low, with the Lindsey forecast being the 23rd. The Mass Pressure for 2013 was also bullish for the early weeks of January 2013. All in all, this short term projection has worked quite well.

Bull Market Forecast - September 2011 through March 2012

Now examining the year 2012 thus far, we see that it has in fact provided a bull market that has basically followed the prediction made on pages 5 and 6 of the 2012 Outlook. Here, aggressive traders were advised to buy an anticipated Sept 24th 2011 low and exit at the end of Feb 2012 or early March 2012. Since this time, the market has been basically range bound indicating that some cycles are reaching a peak. Quite often, the cyclic peak will be the trough falling between a double top formation like a field goal in football. This tendency was the basis of George Lindsey’s mirror image or fold back forecasting technique.

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