Here is the forecast for the year 2014. It doesn't require many words to explain how it worked. Rather than give a lengthy review, I think that this time it is enough to just show you the forecast given by the PFS Forecast Model.
This was my general forecast for the year 2014, published in November 2013.
This is what I said in the Bulletin, in November 2013:
Actually my favourite path is a general up movement till April or May (possible up and down in the first months of the year, at the moment I would like to see a brief weak phase till February and then up), then we should see a descent. The descent should start in May, but if we see a Low in May, it is possible that we are going to see another brief up acceleration till June, and then downtrend toward the last days of July/first days of August. I'm expecting a Low around the last 5 days of July or around the first 5 days of August, then up push toward the last days of August or the first 15 days of September, and then down again toward lower levels in October or November.
Now let's compare the Forecast with the 2014 Corn movement.
I feel I can say that the 2014 Corn Forecast was almost perfect!
This following comparison of my PFS Corn Forecast and a spot chart of the Corn market for 2014 should help you to see how well the Corn Forecast worked out in 2014:
Now we are ready to look at the 2014 Model. The 2014 Soybean Model was almost perfect, no forecast troubles at all.
As you can see, it is quite similar to the 2014 Corn model. It is no secret that these two Commodities usually move in quite the same way.
This is what I wrote in the 2014 Soybean Bulletin:
I'm expecting to see Soybeans continue moving up. Probably the best up push will start in February because a possible weak phase could work during the first 45 days of the year.
Then an up push in the first days of March, but a possible pullback could start in the second half of March with lower prices in April. The general up movement should work till May, where a downtrend could start.
May is a very important month, in case of a High we can bet for a downtrend (and at the moment this is my favourite path), but if May turns to be a Low after a descent in the first months on the year, it is possible then that a new uptrend starts exactly from May. In this case we are going to see a boring May and June, but during the summer the uptrend should start. But I'm telling you, this is not my favourite path, only if May is a Low then we have to work with this forecast. At the moment my forecast is projecting May as a High, and then descent. Over the year we will work with the Key Prices to be able to trade it properly.
If the descent works from May as expected, we should see an intermediate Low between the end of July and the beginning of August. I don't exclude also a little Low around June the 8th. Anyway, we should see lower levels during the summer. Then a new down push around half way through August or from the last days of the month or beginning of September, down toward October...
It will be enough to have a look at Soybeans movement over 2014 to see how the forecast has been fantastic (to see the real movements of the Futures during the summer, look at the July, August and September Futures contracts):
To better see how the forecast worked out in 2014 look at this comparison between my PFS Forecast and the 2014 Spot Soybeans Chart:
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