It began in the early thirties, with a dual objective:
- On the part of Louis Hasbrouck (financially-minded) who wanted to find out what makes markets fluctuate -- that is, what lies behind the ebb and flow of economic change, particularly relative to recurrent phenomena of "boom and bust" such as he had just lived through in 1929
- On the part of Muriel Bruce Hasbrouck (research-minded writer) who wanted to find out what makes people behave the way they do.
These two studies met, and merged, in 1931. Louis Hasbrouck had exhausted every available source of applicable knowledge relative to his basic question, only to find that nobody had an answer. Muriel Hasbrouck, despite psychology, philosophy, and genetics, had come to a dead end in her research. No one, it seemed, had found a principle of causality for economic fluctuation or for human behavior. At this point it was mutually decided to extend the search to older beliefs -- to plumb the depths of a concept and a theory which have persisted through the centuries:
- The early Greek concept of a unified field of energy, whose center is the Sun, as enveloping, and interacting with everything that lives.
- The Babylonian theory that variations in the forces of this field, calculable according to mathematical astronomy, correspond not only with seasonal shifts, but with many other types of change.
These related ideas are defined by Dr. Derek de Solla Price as "the twin origin ( of science) in the Graeco-Babylonian melting-pot." They provided the frame of reference from which could be developed -- thanks to modern physics from Faraday to Einstein and Bohr -- what can be called Space-Time Dynamics. Dr. Price further defines the process as "cross-fertilization," and he adds: "Whole new sciences have arisen from the confluence and interlocking of previously separated departments of knowledge." (Science Since Babylon, pp. 21-22. Yale.)
Space-Time Dynamics is one of these new sciences. It has taken thirty years of study and research to consolidate the various factors which made it possible to order and apply the SpaceTime Structure relative to cyclic change and evolution in world and economic affairs. Its application at the practical level of trend anticipation is the outcome of the realization of a logical relationship between the changing forces in the "field" of space-time and the changing moods and attitudes of people -- the realization that we, here on earth, are living in space-time; we are a part of it.
To put it briefly, there appears to be, in the field of space-time, an orderly cyclic wave of changing energy. What we have established is that the crests and troughs of these energy waves can be timed, that they coincide with major turning-points in economic history, and that these in turn are found to coincide with observable changes in the public mood. Thus it is clear that economic changes arise not from events, political actions, or manipulation of financial machinery, but from how people feel -- their desires, motivations, and attitudes. Many economic thinkers have accepted this as a theory. But no way has been found -- from the statistical approach -- to anticipate a change in public moods and motivations.
THE RECORD shows that by means of the space-time technique these changes can be anticipated and timed. We were able to predict, with confidence, the qualitative extent of the longest prosperity wave in recent economic history.
We published a broad forecast in January, 1959, under the title THE NEXT SEVEN YEARS. In it we predicted a rise and expansion of U.S. and world prosperity throughout that period -- which is still with us. This predicted expansion carried the Dow Jones Industrials from 525 in October, 1958 (when the forecast was written) to 900 in January, 1965. Gross National Product figures have moved up steadily from 460 to 630. We have also anticipated the interim down-turns, or interruptions. (See attached excerpts.)
THE PRESENT FORECAST evaluates and dates the crest, or peak, of this long cyclic wave we predicted -- and have experienced. With a ten-page anticipatory analysis of the timing, and the implications, of the coming change in economic climate, we include a prototype graph of the long range wave as it has coincided with the peaks and troughs of recent history -- with an interpretation of its meaning and significance -- projected through the coming peak. This, together with future discussion (personal or by mail) as to the practical application of the Forecast findings, we are offering at a subscription price of $250.
M. B. Hasbrouck, Louis Hasbrouck
1 September, 1958
DJI 525, GNP 460
"Manufacturers, backed up by government pronouncements, are nurturing needs, wants, desires, and acquisitive ambitions to a point -- and at a tempo -- never before achieved in history by any country. All this tunes in with the natural wave of optimism for which the cycle pattern calls at this time."2 February 16, 1959
DJI 610 / GNP 500
"Take the present. The economy is going through a minor trend change. We can expect public psychology to show more caution than has been recently exhibited, but the underlying mood continues to be one of confidence, which basically will continue up to the arrival of the big splurge indicated for 1964-64-65. . "3 December 19, 1960
DJI 615 / GNP 525
"As you know, the present phase of uncertainty can be seen as ending in 1962, changing to a phase of certainty and/or optimism which will carry on up to the peak. . ."4 January 27, 1961
DJI 630 / GNP 530
"If you will look at the graph I gave you a couple of months ago, you will observe that in the projection of the Dow Jones Industrials, a change in direction is indicated for about now: early February. . Let us remember, however, that the overall Graph shows that the basic underlying trend is constructive for several years to come. So it can be expected that many stocks will start up, or continue on an upward course, even in the face of continuing uncertainty."5 April 11, 1962
DJI 695 / GNP 540
"As you may remember, the pattern for the past year (1961-62) calls for a period of uncertainty, lasting for another few months from now, but furnishing the basis for a final explosive upsurge in the economy."6 July 9, 1962
DJI 580 / GNP 550
"In the next three years - plus - you should be able to double the dollar value of your fortune. Unknown to me, J.F.K. had picked April 11, 1962, for his attack on the steel industry. . ."7 January 2, 1964
DJI 765 / GNP 575
"To summarize: just ahead lies 1964, gathering momentum toward a cycle peak, with energy very little interrupted by alarums and excursions."Seven Years of Space Time Forecasts
From "The Next Seven Years" (American Mercury, January 1959)
"The next seven years will see the repetition of a recurrent phenomenon for which there is no obvious explanation. A period of world expansion and prosperity will be followed by a period of chaos, during which many things built up during the long approach to the prosperity peak will be destroyed, including the wealth of nations, groups, and individuals."Early Letters...February 16, 1959:
"The underlying mood continues to be one of confidence, which basically will continue up to the arrival of the big splurge timed for 1963-64-65." July 9, 1962: "In the next three years, plus, you should be able to double the dollar value of your fortune."From Forecast I (October 15 1964)
"Knowing with confidence, today, that by June, 1965, the velocity of human energy will begin to slow down, in preparation for a breakdown in spring, 1966."Interim Letters...First series: #5 (June 28, 1965):
"The first warning of the coming shift in economic climate timed (broadly) in the Forecast for the present period (June-July, 1965) has come outinto the open -- first in the behaviour, since May, of the New York and London stock prices, and second, in the unexpected speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board on June 1. The remaining months of 1965, and the early months of 1966, will offer a number of opportunities to shorten sail. The present period is a precursor as well as a warning" . . . . . (January 20, 1966) ''Objectively, then, where do we stand today in relation to the Spsce-Time Wave? WE HAVE COME, ONCE MORE, TO A PERIOD OF CRUCIAL CHANGE."From Forecast II Summary, March 31, 1966
"Throughout the Space-Time Forecasts we have pointed out that history, in terms of events or conditions, never repeats. Therefore the disintegration that will set in from now on will follow a pattern of change unlike those following any previous peak period such as 1929, when the breakdown was first recognized through the spectacular crash in the stock market. . . The period from Early February to around the middle of May can bring a gradual, but continuous decline in public confidence."Interim Letters...Second Series (June 7, 1966):
"In practically all financial planning, the confrontation of major and minor trend change is always a big problem. At this moment the question -- will there be a "summer rally?" -- is uppermost in the minds of many people . . . #2 (July 18) "It is important to remember at this time that 1966 is a different year from any we have ever known. Traditional notions, such as "summer rallies" should be regarded as cliches, and replaced by the clear-cut Space-Time view-point that the Big change has come -- the trend is DOWN, the word is BE LIQUID..." #3 (August 11) We do not in any way compete with the technical analysts. We do not comment on individual stocks or handle funds. Our vital objective is to keep you from being fooled by surface appearances, through bringing you a reliable TIMING frame of reference within which to do your investing, planning, and economic thinking . . Just as we were able to indicate early February as a market top, and mid-May as the low of a down-move from which recovery would be sporadic, sluggish, and unproductive, so we today bring you advance warning, in plenty of time to act, in the words of Hamilton Bolton: "Investors must recognize that probabilities of capital gains are thin, and that business men should be watching corporate policies with a wary eye." #4 (September 12) We therefore say, with added emphasis: any stock market rally that might show itself during September can be regarded as still another sporadic, abortive effort, an opportunity to shorten sail still further, sit on the hatches, and WAIT. Wait, that is, for the end of of this first radical deflation in stock prices when a balancing up-move can develop that will be worth while, in spite of the unavoidable fact that we are now in the first stages of a long down trend. "