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The Hamilton Bolton Correspondences From the Hasbrouck Space/Time Forecasting Archives
In discussing the very fine analyses of economic trends by Bolton-Tremblay, several points come up that I would like to register with you:
Bolton is trying to utilise many known methods (and inventing new ones) in the area of statistical mechanics for his dual purpose: i.e., to be able at all times to make a quantitative and qualitative judgement of conditions -- economic, financial, and stock markets -- and to predict, from this basis, the trends and conditions of the future.
He does a good job; one of the best, I'd say, and as you know I have made a study of most of the systems developed for this purpose by many people during the last thirty years. In fact, it was my dissatisfaction with these methods that drove me to the search for what might lie behind the phenomena of changing trends. Now, it seems to me that Bolton, with all his wealth of statistics, graphs, and cycle studies, is experiencing a dissatisfaction similar to mine. He is finding, as I found, that while these empirically constructed tools often appear to give the answers, they are not consistant from one period to another, but call for tinkering or "smoothing", which distorts their fundamental significance and value. Bolton's desire to discover a consistant structure in the empirical area is clearly shown in his exhaustive analysis of the Elliott Wave Principle and its linkage with the subtleties of the Fibonacci series. Bolton has put an appalling amount of labour in to an effort to correlate stock market price changes with the Elliott theory, but he seems to feel that such a correlation is nonexistent. I discovered this for myself round the time that Bolton was taking his Masters at Harvard: i.e., that no empirical system, based on statistics alone, could accomplish the desired result.
As for the Fibonacci Series, you will recall that I employ it in the structure of the moving averages which give such accurate buy and sell signals in certain commodity markets. I think that is Bolton would apply it in this way to his ADL he would increase the accuracy of his stock market timing.
Bolton agrees that all cycle theories depend on the principle that there is "FORM in the world we live in and in the universe around us." He also says that Elliott has provided stock market analysis with "some sense of form," but that the Elliott principle in itself does not provide an accurate basis for prediction. And in all his painstaking analysis of Elliott, Bolton touches just once on the heart of the matter -- the missing link -- when he says that Elliott was trying to find a way to add the element of time; that he believed "there might be some important law of time at work as well."
This is particularly interesting to me because, as you know, my own research, which also began in 1930, has produced a working pattern of sequence and cyclicity, a Key Cycle, whose peaks, troughs, and interim phases are found to coincide with recorded changes in economic trends and world conditions as far back as records are available, and which gives -- as you have seen -- a dependable basis for prediction. The source of this Key Cycle is in the missing area -- the time continuum -- which is the only reliable source of form and structure, as Bolton puts it, "in the world we live in and the universe around us."
You have seen how closely this Key Cycle pattern conforms with past history; you have seen its predictions work out with consistent accuracy in current experience. Now, linking the Key Cycle on both counts, with Bolton's work, I am more than ever impressed with the fact that the confusion arising out of empirical analysis can almost invariably be clarified by means of its definite timing signals and its unfailing sequence and recurrence in the qualitative area.
Noting only two of the many periods in which ^The above would apply -- the down move following the 1929 peak, and the temporary top of 1956, both of which, as Bolton observes, were misinterpreted by most statisticians:
Even now, few people seem to realise that the 1930's brought a major turning point in world and economic history. It was the end of one era of economic, political, and social thinking, and the beginning of another. The Key Cycle shows this period as one of a recurrent series of such changes, which can be traced back at calculable intervals over the past three hundred years. In the Cycle structure this period (approximately ten years) is called the chaotic phase; it always brings an end and a beginning. It invariably follows a "peak" such as 1929; it is always succeeded by a period of changing public attitudes which follow a regular, predictable sequence.
The turnup in 1942 was clearly signalled as a phase change (you've seen this on my long range graph.) The new wave of economic thinking had begun, with its crest far in the future.
The pause in 1956 -- as with each predictable phase change in the sequence -- was only temporary. Bolton arrived at a like conclusion by a different route, but as he says, most people were badly fooled and looked for a "depression." Much the same thing is true of the period we are now going through. . . a temporary top was signalled for around the middle of 1959, as I told you at the time.
There are many such examples of Key Cycle clarification of Bolton's conclusions and questionings, but this is a letter, not a book. What I want to emphasize here is that a Key Cycle in the time continuum is not in any sense "occult" as Bolton uses the word. It is closer to reality that any empirical cycle (such as Ned Dewey reports in such profusion year after year, or those so lavishly projected by William Young) could ever be.
There is "form in the world and in the universe around us," but the key to its structure can be found only in the basic rhythms of the time continuum. It was Jung who said, year ago, that "time is not an abstraction, but a concrete continuum."
The present record of results obtained through our Key Cycle (which, as you know, has not been publicized) offers sufficient evidence that a new set of clues in the perennial mystery of how the economic mechanism changes speed and direction has been uncovered. Its implications open up a field of possible development that makes me wish I was a younger man. The period that lies immediately ahead of us -- the sixties -- is so clearly delineated in the Key Cycle pattern as heading toward another major change in human thinking -- and timing its arrival -- that I'd like to be around to see what comes of it, even as you and I have lived through the last chaotic phase and had the job of picking up the pieces...
All the best --
To Hamilton Bolton - August 9th, 1960
Dear Mr. Bolton:
For the past two years as a subscriber to your Bank Credit Analyst, I have been impressed with your accuracy while noting your attempts to refine the work. I find your forecasts very helpful.
After the 1929 debacle, Louis Hasbrouok began intensive studies to determine what causes changes in mass psychology and the resulting booms or busts. He rediscovered some fundamental laws in the geocentric field which point up the major turnings with great accuracy. His foreoasts are more accurate than Nelson's of R.C.A. in timing the periods of electrical disturbances and earthquakes. Incidently, for several years he has filed in advance with Nelson his forecasts of such disturbances.
In view of your recent comments on one's inability to predict changes in mass psyohology and your latest intensive review of the Elliot Wave Principle, I asked him to let me have his comments. The enclosed August 7th letter is the result. I'm certain you will find it interesting. You might even find that his work would be a tool which you could use to strengthen your own. Should you happen to be in New York fairly soon, you might find that a chat with him both interesting and valuable.
In my humble view, he has found somethlng very basic which requires an organization with adequate facilities to conduct intensive studies to bring it to full fruition.Maybe you could offer helpful suggestions.
To Donald C. Townley - August 23rd, 1960
Dear Mr. Townley:
I certainly do appreciate your letter together with Mr. Hasbrouck's most interesting letter to you. I am therefore forwarding you an extra copy of this letter incase you wish to forward same to Mr. Hasbrouck.
Let me go back a long way. I have always, since my college days, been fascinated by the investment field and in particular the stock market. Even in the late 20's and early 30's I used to read, and still have, many of the current books which appeared in the literature and which my father bought. (He was a real estate man, but also a pretty successful investor considering his lack of organized study of the subject).
During the 1930's I had my first disillusionment with value theories when once again the economic environment of 1937/8 swept away values right and left. As so often happens, one goes to extremes. Techniques such as Dow Theory were in their hey-day; yet they also by 1939 had ceased to function properly. In the mean time I also took up what are now called "cycle" studies. The rise in the summer of 1938 apparently was explained by such analysis. Here again however there seemed at that time to be no extremely consistent key. (In later years I saw how such studies indicated a paralyzing stock market climate in 1951-52 similar o 1930-32, which fortunately failed to materialize).
At about this time I also had my first introduction to Elliott in the series of articles referred to in the Financial World, to which my father subscribed.
At this time also I came across Dana Skinner's "Seven Kinds of Inflation" which seemed to give (and still does) a superior approach to investment forecasting. This book is long out of print but it produced the thinking about money and credit which allowed me in the post-war period to develop a new approach to stock market thinking, based on the fundamentals of money and credit. Heretofore "fundamentals" lacked any type of quantitative precision. It was all qualitative and every man (and his dog) came up with different answers which usually ended up in buying at the top and selling at the bottom. Dana Skinner's book (Whittlesee House 1937) is a pioneering work of the like of Charles Dow's editorials in the Wall St. Journal from 1889 on. However it is never likely to have the impact that Dow has had on subsequent technical thinking.
The war years interrupted serious study, but when in 1946 we started up a new business (Bolton, Tremblay & Company) in investment consulting, one of the first jobs we undertook was to develop some broad economic and monetary studies along the lines of Dana Skinner. This took time since with a small staff everybody has to be "chief, cook, and bottle washer". Thus it was not till June 1949 that we were able to issue our first two page bulletin, calling for the resumuption of the major bull market which in its way was quite a minor milestone as we look back.
In the meantime, we have studied just about every technique which is available and still don't feel we have anywhere near the final answer. In other words, our approach has become extremely eclectic, calling upon all manner of information and ideas and trying to synthesize on the basis of experience what should happen. This method is perhaps similar to keeping one or two steps ahead of the bailiff, but it also requires a philosophy of investment which money and credit studies have been able to give, and in which strangely enough the Elliott Theory has tended to concur.
I note that Mr. Hasbrouck refers to Key Cycles and I am quite familiar with the idea: in fact I constantly watch some of these. "Stock Trend" in Springfield, Mass., also seems to have worked on these. However I have found, due no doubt to my own lack of thorough study of them, that it is impossible for me, before the event, to tell in many cases whether these will be highs or lows. Thus a Key Cycle was obvious around the beginning of 1960. As it turned out, we had a double top in the Averages plus a considerable deterioration in market breadth at the time and also a sloppy credit situation. It was obviously a double top of importance, but the problem of putting it in its proper persective 6 months or 5 years in advance is one which has escaped yours truly. This may be somewhat of an exaggeration since on a cycle basis I am familiar with the approximate October 1931 June 1932 twenty-eight year cycle which might be called "first cousins once removed" and which at this point, also going back to the 1904 experience - the previous 28 year cycle - might reinforce a bull arguement at this time. However such examples as this are quite isolated, and in between there are great voids.
At all events, I certainly shall look forward at some time this fall perhaps to having a chance to meet Mr. Hasbrouck in New York. What impresses me most about Mr. H's letter is that he is not a crank. So many of the people who write in taking me to task for this or that are obviously cranks of the first order. These gentlemen have the germ of an idea but think that heaven and earth should stand still while they pontificate. I'm happy to feel that Mr. Hasbrouck is not one of these. Anyone who has been around in the investment waters of the last generation should have gained a certain amount of humility. If he hasn't, in my opinion, he is suspect.
To Donald C. Townley - October 5th, 1960
Dear Mr. Townley:
Thank you for your letter of September 14th. I would like to meet Mr. Hasbrouck, as you suggest, but I don't have a firm date in mind yet. It is possible that I'll be in New York in the week of November 14th, and possibly specifically November 18th.
What I'll do is write you when I know, with a copy to Mr. Hasbrouck. Presumably something may be arranged.
To Hamilton Bolton - November 21st, 1960
Dear Mr. Bolton:
Now that we've met, if only briefly and by accident, I'm writing you my personal congratulations, from one Canadian to another, on your new project as outlined in last Sunday's New York Times. You are doing what I've been hoping somebody would do ever since the early twenties, when I was journalistic liaison (or should it be liaisonne) between Toronto and New York, doing feature stories for the Star Weekly on outstanding Canadians in the U.S. I had no idea, then, of transplanting myself to this side of the line. It happened, but once a Britisher -- you know how it is.
From what my husband tells me, you were (as we expected) quick to see the value, and the validity, of our rather extraordinary discovery in correlating cyclic sequences of time with human behaviour and economic trends. I can't help feeling that the time continuum itself took a hand in our meeting just when you had reached so vital a point of expansion. As Louis told you, the thing we want most of all it to put our work to use where it can be of value to people concerned with the major economic problems that loom up, in this decade, as more exacting and more dangerous than ever before to our knowledge. If, in some way, this could be worked through a Canadian-based ogranization, I would feel that all my varied and extensive labors had been more than worth while. I love the U.S., but Canada is my country. By the way, that's a potent symbol you've got -- the Maple Leaf snuggling up to the Eagle! It's a beauty.
Sentiment aside, it was interesting that in the same section of the Sunday Times (P.E7) the American Institute for Economic Research emphasized the point that "when more people are prepared for depression difficulties, fewer unwise commitments are made in the early stages of a business recession." They referred, vaguely (as usual) to "the months and years ahead." They'd never believe, of course, that these periods can be timed in advance, and prepared for. You have our chart, from away back, showing that this can be done, and that one type of recession or depression can be differentiated from another both in duration and in quality of intensity. The mechanism can be entirely concealed from the casual observer. I've worked out a dozen different ways to do this; purely through the choice of words.
Congratulations again, and may I add to Louis' hope that you will dine with us next time you're in New York my own warm invitation -- you know the way --
To Hamilton Bolton - January 8th, 1963
Thanks for your good letter of December 19 with enclosures. Your analysis of present conditions, as always, is so close to being perfect that it is most enjoyable to see. Your basic premise that "money makes the market" is of course true. Having, in our work, gone one step further -- to find out what it is that keeps the money on its job at varying rates of energy and motion -- we appreciate your viewpoint perhaps more than most of your readers.
Your belief that the ingredients for the "bust-up" will emanate largely from broad is being substantiated more and more in the news ; you spoke about this a year ago when you were last here. But whether the troubles come from Europe or Alpha Centauri, we know that they will not break the present trend until the time is ripe, and that our cyclic space-time structure of changing trends indicates when that will be -- more clearly, in fact, than ever before, through recent refinements arising out of Muriel's remarkable work with space-time astrophysics in predicting solar flares. The two sides of the research have met, in full mutual support.
You are one of the very few people familiar with our long range economic forecasts; you have seen how closely the cycle and phase turns fit the pattern of events as they develop. So I don't have to remind you of the basis of our premise: that variations in the electrodynamic field affect all living things and beings, and that therefore the pattern of these variations -- especially the turning-points of change -- can be timed in advance, because time is of the essence of the field. Von Mises speaks of "human action in motion" as the driving force behind all economic change, and he names teleology as the main motivating power in the sciences of human action -- "the ends sought by men in the pursuit of their own designs" is the dictionary definition. Teleology has for so long been four-letter ord in econo ics that it 's good to see it on its way back to respectability.
At any rate, nobody can deny that it is the pull ahead that called the tune, not the push from behind. That is why prediction is the real aim of science, but how many would-be predictors know what it is they are trying to predict? The answer is, as you and I well know, "damn few, is any."
Well , as our grandfathers said, I do run on. But will you give me one good reason why you and I can't get together and pool our findings in time to take advantage of both the coming peak and the collapse?
Now that our work has found its scientific niche -- space-time dynamics -- it is (with, Muriel adds , all due repect) more scientific than your Elliott Wave which, like our economic trend structure, follows the simple and very ancient principle of the Fibonacci series" and links it -- as probably it was originally linked, in "Fibonnacci's" time -- with mathematical astronomy or, if you like, cosmology.
Anyway, you with your method, and we with ours, have got it by the tail. Why can't we swing it?
Best wishes from us both, as always --
To Louis Hasbrouck - July 16th, 1964
Dear Mr. Hasbrouck:
Mr. Hamilton Bolton of Bolton, Tremblay & Company, expressed to us his wish that The Bank Credit Analyst be sent to you, in future, with his compliments. We are, of course, very pleased to make arrangements to insure that our service will reach you regularly beginning with the next issue scheduled for release at the end of this month.
In the meantime, we are enclosing the current bulletin, July, and a copy of the enlarged and revised "Introduction to Bank Credit Analysis". Should you wish any other of Mr. Bolton's works, please let us know and immediate attention will be given to your request.
Astronomical Cycles & Stock Market Behavior - Part I
Telegram Notice of Hamilton Bolton's Death - April 6th, 1967
To Jules Tremblay - April 24th, 1967
Dear MR Tremblay:
We do appreciate your sending us the telegram announcing the sad news Of Hamilton Bolton's sudden passing. It was hard to believe. He had been with us here, only a few days earlier; he stopped over for several hours on his flight back to Bermuda from Montreal on April 1st. He had become a much cherished friend, as well as one of the great inspirational supports in our work of Space-Time Forecasting in which, as you know, he was deeply interested.
You probably do not know -- I think few people did -- that he had spent much time and effort, during the past several years, in an intensive, personal research of the methods, techniques, and sources of the Space-Time concept. In fact, he was better acquainted with its fundamentals than anyone else except ourselves. We believe, from what he told us that last Saturday, that he wanted to carry this undertaking through to a logical point of development and application. He made a special date with us for the morning of April 24th -- today!
Among his papers there must be considerable correspondence from us. He wrote to us by hand, from home, correspondence record is only in our files. But he told us of a major research with our work that he had begun, but not completed, and there may be others that we had not heard about.
We are wondering if you would be so very good as to find out who it may be who might be taking over those papers and letters connected with our work, and ask if he would get in touch with us about its about its further use along the lines begun by Hamilton which, we know, he was anxious should be carried further. We would hope that you might be the one to take them over, as you are already familiar with our work through personal acquaintance and through Jim Fraser. But perhaps that is too much to hope.
Do let us hear from you, and when you are in New York, do stop and see us. We would like very much to keep in touch with you, and with the Company, as the inevitable new developments come to pass. And may I add warm sympathy from both of us in what must be a great personal loss to you.
To Louis Hasbrouck - May 2nd, 1967
Dear Mr. Hasbrouck:
Thank you so very much for your warm letter of April 24th.
The death of the "boss" - as I used to affectionately call him - to me was a bolt from the sky; I knew he was not feeling well but I had no idea that he was seriously ill. After his release from the hospital, I heard the word that they had found nothing wrong with him, so, why worry? With the benefit of hindsight and some investigation, it now appears that he was well aware of his condition. It takes courage to keep a thing like this to oneself - perhaps he confided his secret into you? To us, he never offered more than vague hints.
I don't know whether it was sheer intuition on your part or the use of your space-time concept, but you could not have gotten in touch with a better person. Not that I have any personal merit in being able to be of help to you, but it so happens that Hammy kept his association with you shrouded with such secrecy that nobody at Bolton-Tremblay's, including his personal secretary, somehow knew much about it.
My luck - and yours - is that Hammy chose my own secretary to have his space-time study work done.
The enclosed dating back to March 1965 is all that she had, the balance being at his house. We do not know whether the material found among his personal papers consists of correspondence, rough figures or simply photocopies of letters that he had sent you, and the go-between used for obtaining this information indicated a certain lack of co-operation. Bolton's brother, Richard, is the final arbitrater of all things and, fortunately, happens to be a very nice person. Why not write to him and state your case? His address: Richard E. Bolton, c/o Bolton, Ellwood & Aimers, 4101 Sherbrooke St. W., Montreal, Quebec. My secretary, Denyse Cuirot - your angel - requests that this exchange of correspondence and the enclosed, be kept confidential.
It will be a privilege and a pleasure to stop and see you the next time I am in New York, which may be as early as sometime this month. Meanwhile, please do not hesitate to get in touch again if Denyse, or myself, can be of any assistance.
Jules L. Tremblay
P.S. I found a few more pages that he apparently gave me in June '65.
To The Hasbroucks - May 1st 1967
Dear Mr. and Mrs. Hasbrouck:
First permit me to introduce myself as Jules L. Tremblay's assistant and VP of BCA Distributors Ltd. Foremost, however, is (or was) my friendship with Hamilton Bolton.
In the past seven years that he and I came to know each other, he often spoke of you to me and whenever he did, his deep affection for both of you did not escape me. In fact, he became very humble when he'd relate to me the attention he enjoyed from you. His inquisitive mind, keen perception and sensitivity - qualities added to his brilliant mind - made him a worthy disciple of yours.
Many years ago he loaned me - then bought me - a copy of your book, "Pursuit of Destiny" which I recommended to others. Hammy often referred to this book - so do I for that matter. When Jules showed me your letter of the 24th, I felt I had to write you personally besides sending you, through Jules, the work that Hammy entrusted to me two years ago. I believe that it may be part of the work mentioned in your letter and from what Hammy said to me. I should tell you that when I prodded him a few months ago as to the following pages, he was evasive until I suggested that he may have had second thoughts over what had been written. He agreed but I'm not sure that he was truthful. Perhaps his deteriorating health prevented him from adding to this work I had in my possession and perhaps he did not want to be prodded, or couldn't be. . . In any case, only you can determine the value of the work that will reach you shortly, through Jules.
I know that Hammy's desk at home was gone through and that Mr. Don Storey may be a contact. However, Mr. Richard Bolton, Hammy's brother, 4101 Sherbrooke St. W., may be the more logical contact under the circumstances to obtain the papers that were found. I also understand that Mrs. Hamilton Bolton, Spithead Lodge, Warwick Parish, Bermuda, relinquished to her brother-in-law all lawyers' contacts, etc.
Mr. and Mrs . Hasbrouck, I do not expect any answer if it is negative but I would appreciate your enlightenment on the following:
Some time early last year, Hammy told me that he'd ask you to plot our respective b1rthdates in relation to each other. I heard no more of this. Around the 22nd of May, he was particularly depressed and implored me to be careful come the Fall: ". . .be careful. . .your health. . .or an accident. . . Be careful - something is going to happen. . ." is how he put it. Twice again, over the months, i.e. until early November, he made me promise him that I would be careful. From the 14th of November, he steadily grew worse! My question is this: did he ask you to plot our birthdates (October 7, 1911, his; January 25, 1925, mine) and was this the basis of a worry he couldn't overlook? or had he a premonition of sickness, grave sickness, that he attributed to me instead of himself? A no-reply will mean the latter.
Forgive me for writing you in this vein but Hammy was very close and very dear to me. He also wanted us to meet but because of Jules, I thought it was better that I continued to know you through Hammy's words and affection.
I hope that you'll remember him always with fondness. You were among the very few he truly cared for.
P.S. Needless to add that Mr. Richard Bolton, Mrs. Bolton and Don Storey are all unaware of my having part of Hammy's work which I'm pleased to turn over to you. They are equally unaware of my friendship with Hammy. Your discretion as to your source of information will, therefore, be appreciated...
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Our books look back to the 1800ís where the subject involved vibrational physics and astronomical energy fields.
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Fractals apply directly to financial market phenomena, and time-periodic market charts show that similar patterns permeate each time level.
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