In today's world of electronic thinking, the SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE OF ECONOMIC TRENDS is a part of modern life, independent of electric circuitry, bringing into action the natural computer in every human mind for the purpose of integrating the complex components of civilization into a unified, understandable whole.
Technically, it is a WAVE PATTERN IN TIME of the changes in solar-electromagnetic energy, or field force, which is known by science to evoke response and reaction from all living things and beings inhabiting the earth.
Historically, the rhythmic variations of the potential in these field forces are found to be reflected in recognizable, psychological changes in people, which coincide with the constant shifting of political and sociological environments that govern human affairs, and create history.Economically, it is a WAVE PATTERN of changing trends in collective instinct. Its calculable indications go far toward clarifying answers to the ever-recurrent questions asked by bankers, business men, financiers, politicians, and practically everybody: Where are we? How did we get here? AND WHERE ARE WE GOING?
The Space_Time concept is neither fatalistic, cyclical, nor mechanical. It discloses an ORDER existing within the perpetual change in human affairs that is the basis of life, history, and the growth of civilizations. The Space-Time Wave potential never repeats. Every major wave, optimistic or pessimistic, is a new adventure in the advance of humanity and the world. It is, perhaps, the nearest thing to a concept of FREEDOM than anything yet discovered. It indicates not only the reality of evolutionary change; it anticipates and evaluates each turning-point in economic history. Through knowledge of its course every individual is free to exercise his own will and judgment with certainty that he can be, at all times, moving with the trend of human affairs and not against it. It is in this spirit that SPACE-TIME FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC TRENDS has been developed and communicated and (since October, 1964) accepted and utilized by a group of thinking people who formerly had been dissatisfied with available methods of economic forecasting.
WHAT IS FORECASTING?
Most people think of forecasting as the prediction of coming events, to be accomplished (in economics) by the projection of current action trends in some form of statistical data. But this concept deals only with records of events that have occurred in the past, and events are the result of human actions. Actions must have been preceded by thinking and planning which, in turn, had originated in desire. By the time the statistics are recorded, the first three of the four natural stages of human creativity are apt to be largely forgotten. The statistics stand out like a skeleton, devoid of pulsing blood, warm flesh, and vibrating mentality. Statistical records, of course, are essential. But it has been noted many times that expert analysts vary widely in their conclusions when it comes to forecasting future conditions from statistical data alone.
For successful forecasting, the four stage sequence of human creativity must be taken into account. THE SPACE-TIME TREND STRUCTURE steps directly into the filling of this gap. It throws light on past conditions, when desire was rising, . plans thought out, actions being taken. It presents a PREVIEW of those future environments in which the plans and actions in preparation will take shape in an economic and world climate RADICALLY DIFFERENT from either the present or the past.
SPACE-TIME FORECASTING -- A RECORD
The first Space-Time Forecast, published in an article "The Next Seven Years" (American Mercury, January 1959) stated that according to a newly-discovered pattern in time (not yet named) a major, unprecedented WAVE OF PROSPERITY was gathering momenturm and would continue -- with interruptions, such as occurred in 1962 and 1965 -- into the early spring of 1966. Following the crest and breaking-point of the Wave would come a period of chaos, "during which many things, built up during the long approach to the prosperity peak, will be destroyed, including the wealth of nations, groups, and individuals."
Today, the world undoubtedly is in a state of chaos. Disruption has overtaken India and China. All of Africa is in a turmoil. The mid-East is a seething cauldron of unrest. Great Britain has dwindled from a wide-flung empire to a small, lonely island. The Soviet world has weakened radically from its former assurance of world dominance. The United States, trapped in an unwanted, and possibly inflammable war, entangled in an international monetary web, threatened by race riots and labor trouble, plagued by the worst crime wave in its history, is faring no better -- in spite of goverrunent assurances to the contrary -- than any other area in a world which has entered on a "time of trouble."
The record (see attached charts) indicates that the principles underlying the Space-Time Structure are sound. As a Means for anticipating changing trends in the stock market and economic climate -- as well as revealing these changing trends to be a natural factor in course of history -- the concept has proved its merit. It is, however, new to most economic thinking. A recent subscriber, too young to have known any environment other than prosperity, asks to know more about the genesis of Space-Time Forecasting. Where, when, and why was it discovered and developed into its present useful form?
These questions are not difficult to answer: the place, Wall Street. The time, late 1930. The reason, a sense of bafflement (after ten years in the financial arena) as to how the 1929 crash had come about, as well as its various predecessors, dotted along the course of the past century. All these, according to the records, had arrived like storms out of the blue, for no reason that was apparent at the time. Could they have been anticipated? And, if there were more of them to come, was there any method to be discovered by which they can be forecast, and prepared for?
The process of discovery began with an exhaustive study of economic fundamentals, and of technical methods in use at the time, which might lead to the desired end. But no clear concept emerged until, after several years of trial and error, the study was expanded to include the science of TIME ITSELF. This led naturally into the realm of modern field physics and the space-time continuum. Such a synthesis brought the Space-Time Forecasting of Economic Trend Change not only into immediate application to economics and the stock market, but placed it in its natural classification -- and named it.
What had been discovered was -- as many historians have suspected, but never proved -- that there is an orderly, comprehensive TIME PATTERN OF SEQUENCE in world and economic history. Its critical turning-points in time are predictable, and they invariably coincide with fundamental change and expansion -- "giant steps" in human thinking and aspiration. This conceptual synthesis brings the SpaceTime concept to the very forefront of modern thinking, not only in science, but in everyday life. It shows, too, that in this fast-moving electrical world, the former tools of any any trade (including economics) need to be sharpened, for current use, against the whetstone of what recent scientific writers call "The New Hypothesis" which, they tell us, relates life and mind to concepts of science and daily experience. Earlier, Einstein defined the concept more simply by saying that everything of which we are aware is electrical in nature.
But where do these new hypotheses fit in with economic forecasting? This question answers itself in the fundamentals of the Space-Time Structure. If, as noted, events are the result of actions, arising from thinking and planning, preceded by desire, what comes before the desire? If everything that happens has its origin in the minds and hearts of men, what is it that MOVES their minds and hearts? Even the wisest of thinkers have been unable to answer this, but the Space-Time Structure reveals the simple truth that history moves, not haphazardly, nor in CYCLES, but in WAVES -- that is, in wave action which, in every discipline of modern science, is known to be the basis of all motion and change, from galaxies to atoms and electrons. Today's space wizards have demonstrated, through the NASA satellites, that the "space" between the earth and the heavens is in reality a great reservoir of ENERGY, electric, magnetic, eternally (and still mysteriously) changing in potential. No one knows what electricity is, but men have learned some of its laws and how to use them. From this knowledge, the great, vibrant, sun-centered region in which earth-dwellers actually live has come to be called THE FIELD.
It is beginning to be believed by forward-looking scientists and thinkers that the forces in the FIELD can, and do, affect all living things on earth. This concept has been in process of development for nearly forty years; the first research in the matter of force-fields affecting earth life was carried out at Yale, by Dr. H. S. Burr and Dr. F. S. C. Northrop. The Space-Time structure work -- which includes a ten year record of accurate forecasting of field-force disturbances such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms -- is, however, the only direct application of this ultra-modern concept to human affairs at the practical level of everyday life, business, financial, and socio-economic.
The Space-Time Forecasts are concerned primarily with the overall trend changes in the economic climate as a whole. But separate segments of the economy, such as the stock Market, having a life of their own, follow individual wave trends which function within the longer range Wave Pattern. Correlations of these two patterns calls for considerable skill. While Space-Time Forecasts give clear warning of coming critical periods relative to stock market action, it is recommended that at these periods, traders should study, as well, whatever technical tools they prefer for closer timing relative to special stocks or groups. There are many experts in this latter field, but few (if any) with the capacity to project, and evaluate major market turns in advance, as was done through the Space-Time Structure prior to May, 1965, and again well ahead of February, 1966, when the DJIA made its historical high shortly before the indicated breaking-point of the major prosperity Wave uhich had been forecast (from October, 1964) for late March, 1966.
M.B.H.
L.H.
by James L. Fraser
This is the second of a series of reports in an effort to improve communication between extraordinary research efforts and our readers. We still have in mind a venture which may become part of, or an auxiliary to, our regular Letters. This report is my explanation of the work of Muriel Bruce Hasbrouck and Louis Hasbrouck, an intelligent husband and wife team doing independent research in forecasting economic trends, For more complete information please contact the Hasbrouks at 319 East 50th St., New York, New York 10022. (phone 212-PL8-1998)
Muriel Bruce Hasbrouck, Canadian born, has done graduate study in comparative philosophy, is the author of "Pursuit of Destiny" - a study of individual personality - and discovered in 1940, with Louis Hasbrouck, a predictive index for timing periods of radio transmission disturbance (first tested with Bell Telephone Laboratories), later developed to include forecasting the time of major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, solar flares, and geomagnetic storms. Recently, in 1961-62, this predictive index was used to forecast missile failures in launching.
Louis Hasbrouck, American born and Yale educated, was an Air Force pilot in World War I and an Air force officer in World War II. In the 1920's he learned investment and finance with Bonbright and Company, later becoming an independent investment counsel. Beginning in 1930 he took up the task of finding out (a) what makes markets fluctuate, and (b) what natural laws, if any, are at work behind the phenomena of changing economic trends.
The Space-Time Structure
"Scientific reasoning is completely dominated by the presupposition that mental functionings are not properly part of nature. "
- Alfred North Whitehead"The more I puzzle over the great wars of history, the more I am inclined to the view that the causes attributed to them...were not the root causes at all, but rather explanations or excuses for certain unfathomable drives of human nature. "
- Senator J. W. FulbrightBACKGROUND AND RECORD...In order to find out what makes markets fluctuate and what makes people behave the way they do, a principle of causality for economic fluctuation and for human behavior is needed. Space-Time Dynamics is the Hasbroucks' answer.
In brief, there appear to be orderly, though unseen, waves of changing energy within our Solar System. The Hasbroucks have established that the crests and troughs of these energy waves can be timed, that they coincide with major turning points in economic history, and that these, in turn, coincide with changes in public moods. As good contrarians know, economic changes arise from how people feel but no statistical way has been found to anticipate a change in public motivations.
What is Space-Time? As utilized here in forecasting trend changes, it is taken to be interplanetory space - the electromagnetic field of the Solar System. The radiating forces of the sun pervade space in rhythmic motions, and the regular passage of the planets through this space leads to changes in the earth's magnetic field which in turn, affects all forms of life. These field-force variations can affect people everywhere, at the same time.
Even today, serious research in this area is discouraged, as any method of timing that involves the Solar System is confused with astrology. To the Hasbroucks' knowledge, no full investigation of astrology had been made until they undertook it. They re-studied scientific history and found what they were looking for in the relativity of modern physics, measurable according to principles of mathematical astronomy.
The current forecast is reproduced below in chart form with the last peak at "C" corresponding in Space-
KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING OF OUR OWN BUSINESSES...Too often we believe that knowledge of our own business environment is sufficient for dealing with any economic crisis.
The ability of the American business community cannot be questioned. But this ability cannot be equated with unending prosperity. Too often in history the shrewdest thinkers have been trapped by changes in direction which suddenly interrupt current trends.
My interest in this phenomena has led me to visiting with Muriel Bruce Hasbrouck and Louis Hasbrouck, an active husband and wife team doing independent research in forecasting economic trends. They have come up with a predictive technique that is, as they say, "as fundamental as Contrary Opinion and closely related in concept."
Each cyclic wave is divided into 12 periods, covering about 3 years each. The C to D period represents uncertainty and fear (as in 1930-1933). D to E brings temporary recovery (as 1936). F to G 1s a time of reconstruction wherein psychological factors of the new trend appear (as 1940-1953). From G the pull from the peak ahead at C is clearly evident. Minor adjustments at A and 8 often are misread as threatening a depression (as 1957 and 1962).
The Hasbroucks continue. "Working from empirical knowledge that all economic change (in a free economy) is the result, not of events, nor of political actions, but of how people feel -- their desires, motivations, and demands -- the Space-Time Forecast evaluates and dates the next inevitable 'shift' in economic climate. It tells you not only when, but how this coming change will undermine the economic structure."
Many methods try to tell you when. The indicator approach tries this. But the how has escaped most of us. "The Space-Time principle is based on a qualitative rather than a quantitative, or statistical approach." It is an approach dealing with the underlying forces of change. It traces effects to causes. The following points warrant attention. (For further information write the Hasbroucks at 319 East 50th Street, New York, N.Y.)
- "All economic changes coincide with the increase, or the lessening, of public confidence." The way people feel influences trends.
- However, "no way has been found - from the statistical approach - to anticipate a change in the public mind." There is no mechanistic formula.
- The Space-Time principle does predict changes in consumer behavior based upon waves of energy change in mass psychology.
- The crests and troughs of these energy waves can be timed and are found to coincide with major economic and historical turning points.
- History shows every prosperity peak is followed by a trouble period. This does not mean automatic calamity. It does not mean great depression. It means a reorientation of direction as all times of troubles have led to new evolutionary waves.
- The quality of each energy wave induces a different psychological climate and thereby different human responses. To illustrate, the 1929 energy peak was dynamic, with violent responses. The peak approaching us seems different. It will induce, according to the Hasbroucks, a sense of apathy throughout the world.
Already fear of involvement is spreading throughout society. Insofar as decisions are political today, what showed up as economic loss 35 years ago might this time be expressed in further loss of individual freedom and gain of government control.
Yours for less apathy and more empathy - J.L.F.
Wells, Vermont
Time to 1966. The average time between peaks is 35.8 years and history shows that after each peak there follows a "time of troubles" during which a totally new attitude develops in human consciousness which will predominate througbout the period that follows.
In effect, the Hasbroucks are saying that changes in economic trends follow the changing attitudes of people which, in turn, arc tuned to the changing and measurable forces in the "field". More simply, the psychological climate is affected by forces such as those familiarly known as gravity and geomagnetism.
Philosophically speaking, we conceive history as having direction. Change is real and there is a guiding order in change. Creative experimentation can discover future trends. A flash insight may be worth all the available statistics. The creative genius in a painter or composer is the realization of future trends before they are visible. Oftenm a man's life and work is damned or redeemed after his death when the future confirms or casts aside his efforts.
THE SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE...it is qualitative and not quantitative. The difference is shown thusly. A prediction is a factual statement based on recorded facts of past performance, synthesized and projected according to whatever technical or analytical methods the predictor prefers. On the other hand, a forecast is a teleological picture in time and space. It is based not on past events but from future developments. .
This concept is a real Contrary Opinion - the future is the determiner of the present and the present is the determiner of the past. Teleology implies a pull from in front which influences current actions. An illustration is in embryology where you can understand the earlier stages, beginning with a cell, only by reference to the future completed human being.
Moreover, Space-Time seems more reliable than accepted theories which believe the future can be projected from present day statistics. The Hasbroucks, in an article entitled "The Next 7 Years", published in January, 1959 defined the general Structure accurately. They stated an uncertain period would end in 1962 (without predicting Kennedy's steel crisis), and said that June 1965 would give a preview of the top (without predicting Martin's speech) . In this connection, wave energy intensified whatever moods, motivations, and attitudes were uppermost at the moment in mass psychology. This intensification of wave energy is what the Hasbroucks forecast.
If you can get advance timing of trend directions ahead, the socio-economic framework may be better gauged. History, in terms of conditions, never repeats. Nevertheless, a sociologist working in his speciality ought to be better prepared for race riots and urban living pressures. An investment analyst may think more creatively about securities. Politicians may start new trends. To illustrate, does Reagan in California, represent a coming development?
Space-Time is an early warning system, worth even more lead time than Contrary Opinion. Today the downward wave is at a more leisurely pace than 1929 due to Federal Government determination and the improved quality of change that is throwing aside established ways and customs in developing nations. Important determinants may include: 1. A popular trend toward peace and against war as this wave sequence is similar to that which brought the Thirty Years War to an end in 1648. 2. Apathy and indifference are paramount now versus panic in 1929. 3. The time is right for a change in international monetary structures, with a solution likely. 4. Escalation of centralized power and where will it end? 5. Does the peak of inflation come with the peak of centralized government? 6. Is freedom now picking up or, as Cromwell the dictator was followed by peace with a monarch, are we in for a period of The Coming Caesars?
IN CONCLUSION...A. Remember the wave crest that ended in 1857 climaxed the great boom which began with the 1849 California gold rush. The trouble period ushered in a change from an agrarian to an industrial economy. B. The wave crest in 1893 was followed by the era of the banker with big trusts and new industries. C. The 1929 crest showed a loss of confidence which bred fear and a dependence on rules, ushering in the era of politicians. D. The 1966 crest will, in turn, evolve into another way of thinking. The science administrator may be the man of the coming period.
Moreover, such change does not have to be a calamity. What occurs is that everything we don't need in the coming period is eliminated. From this orderly procedure of evolutionary change, seemingly more nerve racking than ever before, may come a happier way of living. And stocks, as ever, will fluctuate. New opportunities, with Comsat an example, will become visible.
THE SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE is the outcome of a search, over many years, for a reliable method of forecasting changes in the economic climate. Its discovery revealed an orderly pattern of TIME which has a natural, inherent linkage with changes in what is known as mass psychology -- the dominant, activating element in all trend change. Because of this linkage, indications for the future can be laid out in advance, forecasting those changes in the economic climate that will affect stock prices, business trends, and overall world conditions.
Many analysts recognize the importance of mass psychology, but they usually consider it as quantitative, a matter of statistics, from which they create a "confidence index". It was left for the Space-Time discovery to prove not only that mass psychology is indeed the dominating force in economic evolution, but that changes in its potential result from invisible, but subtly tangible field forces constantly at work affecting human reactions, motivations, and desires. These forces are qualitative, and because of their linkage, through TIME, with the human scheme of things, their modulations can be anticipated and interpreted through knowledge of the order of the Space-Time Structure.
THE SPACE-TIME FORECAST IS A FORECAST. It brings you first a comprehensive preview of coming conditions, changes, and developments in U.S. and world economic and political affairs, together with an illustrative Space-Time Graph, showing the extent and direction of the trend through which the economy is passing. This is implemented by a series of Interim Letters, at frequent intervals, interpreting current events and market conditions in the light of the Space-Time viewpoint. These Letters reach you in plenty of time for action to be taken either for profit, preservation of funds, or -- perhaps most vital in the coming months -- to prepare you for taking advantage of future opportunities for profitable action.
The Space-Time Structure is the most reliable source yet discovered that can provide in advance the timing and potential of these inevitable changes in the economic climate.
THE SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE brings a totally new element to economic thinking and forecasting. It restores the teleological approach -- that is, the science of looking at the future as something that is already there, as if exerting a "pull from in front", waiting for humanity to catch up with it. This eliminates the usual uncertainties of predictive systems that are based wholly on attempts to project the future from current statistical facts, without knowledge of changing economic climates.
THE SPACE-TIME VIEWPOINT provides a better understanding of WHY things are happening the way they are, making possible a logical appraisal of how special interests, as well as general conditions, may be affected by the trend.
Our forecast and hypothesis on how Space-Time functions is available for $50. A. full year's subscription to Space-Time monthly forecasts is $300. The 1984 annual forecast will be included free with the annual subscription.